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U.S. CORN ACREAGE WAY ABOVE TRADE EXPECTATIONS, MARKET FALLS, USDA/WASDE SAYS

DES MOINES, Iowa – The USDA sees the U.S. 2019 corn land almost unaltered from its March gauge, as per its June Acreage Report discharged Friday.

Subsequently, the corn dropped ‘limit down’ 25¢, premise the Sept. prospects contract, while the soybean market climbed 11¢ per bushel, following the report.

  • Note: USDA reported Friday that it will resurvey 14 states, with respect to planting grounds, because of flooding and severe climate. The aftereffects of the review will be discharged August 12, 2019.

At the nearby, the Sep. corn fates completed 21¢ lower at $4.24¾, skipping off a day by day point of confinement low of $4.20. Dec. corn prospects shut 19½¢ lower at $4.31¼.

Aug. soybean prospects shut 10¾¢ higher at $9.04½. November soybean prospects completed 10¾¢ higher at $9.23.

Sep. wheat prospects shut 19½¢ lower at $5.27¼.

August soymeal prospects shut $2.10 per short ton higher at $315.30. August soy oil prospects finished 0.44¢ higher at 28.37¢ per pound.

In the outside business sectors, the NYMEX raw petroleum market is $0.55 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 50 higher.

U.S. 2019 PLANTING REPORT

(IN MILLION BUSHELS) USDA JUNE 2019 AVG. TRADE ESTIMATE USDA MARCH
CORN 91.7 million 86.7 million 92.8 million
SOYBEANS 80.0 million 84.4 million 84.6 million
WHEAT 45.6 million 45.7 million 45.8 million

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2019 corn grounds at 91.7 million bushels versus the avg. exchange gauge of 86.7 million and the USDA’s 2018 June gauge of 92.8 million.

For soybeans, the USDA sees 2019 land at 80.0 million versus the exchange’s desire for 84.4 million and the USDA’s 2018 June gauge of 89.2 million.

All Wheatland gauge is pegged at 45.6 million versus the exchange’s desire for 45.67 million and the USDA’s June 2018 gauge of 45.8 million.

QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. June 1 corn stocks at 5.202 billion bushels versus the avg. exchange gauge of 5.34 billion and the USDA’s year-prior stocks gauge of 5.305 billion.

For soybeans, the USDA sees June 1 stocks at 1.790 billion bushels versus the normal exchange gauge of 1.86 billion and the USDA’s 2018 gauge of 1.21 billion.

USDA pegged the U.S. wheat stocks, as of June 1, at 1.072 billion bushels versus the avg. exchange gauge of 1.10 billion and the USDA’s 2018 gauge of 1.099 billion.

USDA 2019 Quarterly Grains Stocks Report

IN MILLION ACRES USDA JUNE 2019 AVG. TRADE ESTIMATE USDA LAST YEAR
CORN 5.202 billion 5.349 billion 5.305 billion
SOYBEANS 1.790 billion 1.861 billion 1.219 billion
ALL WHEAT 1.072 billion 1.10 billion 1.099 billion

Exchange REACTION

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that USDA gave the business sectors another stunner today.

“Everybody was searching for more beans and less corn and got precisely the inverse. That is the reason the huge response, and it is superbly justifiable. A 25¢ territory in corn in under 3 minutes is something. Nobody comprehends the corn planted and gathered region, as USDA had not demonstrated that sort of advancement in the week by week information. The stocks reports are somewhat neighborly, yet the planted region report is the feature and doubtlessly not positively for a lot of merchants and representatives. These are wild numbers. I do have one rancher who has been disclosing to me that a ton of corn got planted from the get-go in the month, however, all things being equal, these numbers are difficult to accept,” Scoville says.

Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says that the USDA corn real estate gauge is telling.

“Ranchers were plainly boosted to plant corn so as to catch government benefits dependent upon getting something into the ground this season. Search for the July WASDE to mirror a somewhat improved corn monetary record and to fix the soybean accounting report maybe more than was foreseen before the present grounds report,” Gilbertie says.

Britt O’Connell, money counsel for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that not many individuals will accept the present USDA corn real estate gauge.

“I don’t think anybody saw this coming. I question there is much confidence in the distributed numbers. Exchange is revealing to us that too. Contacted breaking point down and now exchanging down 17 to 18,” O’Connell says. “What a wild ride. At a certain point, we were up 14¢ to 15¢.”

The disarray is happening since USDA begins March with planting expectations of 92.4 million sections of land. After a wet spring with postponed planting, the USDA removes 3.0 million corn sections of land from creation in its May WASDE, O’Connell says.

“That is not a run of the mill move, yet in any case something that was exceptionally simple to support and warrant. Today, USDA spots planted sections of land at 91.7 million sections of land. Viably saying that we planted the majority of the sections of land that we initially had arranged,” O’Connell says.

A further jump into the numbers on a state-by-state look, focuses to states that have battled massively – Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, to plant either a similar measure of sections of land of more than a year ago, O’Connell says.

“It just doesn’t make any sense. This ought to be seen as a purchasing opportunity on corn. Bean number could hold some water, with troublesome stocks proceeding to linger over that advertise. Indeed, even with this bullish news in beans, they can just marshal up a 10¢ rally.

Jason Roose, U.S. Products, says that the present USDA Report keeps on giving stun waves in the grains.

“A month ago the enormous drop in yield for corn, because of poor planting conditions, was viewed as benevolent. The stun today, with a foreseen 4-to 5-million-section of land drop in corn, was that USDA decreased corn real estate by just 1.1 million. Be that as it may, the soybean section of land number was brought down by 4.6 million sections of land, with these numbers being moved by the USDA. The enormous stocks on beans could be endangered. Climate will be observed nearer now than most markets we have found in present-day times.”